January 2010 Archives

An Analysis of Apple and Amazon Stock on iPad Day

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Len Edgerly, on the 80th episode of his podcast, was musing on Wall Street reacted to Steve Jobs' announcement of the iPad. I wanted to offer my own analysis of both Amazon and Apple's stock price on the day.

Before I start, though, I must issue a disclaimer. I own neither Amazon or Apple stock. I do own a 1st edition Kindle and an iPod Touch, along with a Macbook Pro. Neither stock is in my team's portfolio and I don't analyse either.

First, Amazon, which according to Google Finance, was up almost 3%. The next day, it was to announce quarterly earnings, which were up 71% year-over-year. Earnings periods traditionally feature a run-up before the announcement with a drop following it. So I'm thinking that a large part of the gain is the pre-earnings runup and not due to this announcement. Given that the previous quarter earnings report featured a 1% gain in the price and gain of just under 3% in the final day of the year on year quarter from last year (4Q, 2008). Again, approximately the same amount. So I'm tempted to conclude that the effect of the iPad on Amazon's stock was negligible.

Now we'll examine Apple, which was up approximately 1.1% on January 24. Apple's earnings aren't due till March, so the earnings impact can be assumed to be nonexistent. It wasn't triple-witching either, nor were options expiring and 1% up or down is not that big a move. An hour-by-hour examination of the stock chart shows that it shot up approximately 2% the minute that Steve Jobs announced the iPad, before resuming its normal pattern, of tracking the market index.

I'm tempted to conclude that traders do not think the iPad is going to threaten Amazon very much, at least at first glance. What would be a more interesting study to conduct is what happens when the iPad with 3G actually ships in April, just in time for Apple's earnings.

¿WTF? Netflix

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I could have sworn that I saw Idiocracy on Netflix's Instant watch queue, but it disappeared soon as I added it. Fail on you, Netflix!

XP Sound Oddities

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So, my eeePC runs Windows XP, which has a bad habit of making random sounds, which only comes up when I listen to talksport or lbc, as else I turn the speakers off (which is a brilliant solution most of the time). I do wish you could just mute the system sounds in Windows.

My First Crush

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Taking after Niniane, I'm listing my first crush. Her name is/was Sophia Sapp. I lost touch with her at age 8.

Chilcot Goes Shakespearean

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Arrest Yoo (and you too)

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Pictures for Drivers

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Our mates at Waze have a list of the most dangerous roads (or quasi-roads) on Earth. Rather than highlight the dangers, like our afore-mentioned mates did, I would like to point out that these are also some of the most picturesque drives in the world. To wit, some examples follow after the flip.

Happy Data Privacy Day

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It's Data piracyprivacy Day!. YAY!!!!

Bridge Tolls to Rise

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SFist relays the news that CalTrans plans to raise our bridge tolls and end the carpool discount. I've left a comment regarding if there are changes for drivers of hybrids.

How to Negotiate Salary

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One of the most common questions I've gotten in job interviews is some variation of "How much do you want to get paid". One click away, at Lifehacker, they have a guide to salary negotiation. Do let me know how it turns out for you.

Has Obama been Subsumed by his Amygdala

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Our mate, Nate Silver at 538 announces that the White House is in a brain freeze. I've recently been reading Amanda Ripley's The Unthinkable: Who Survives when Disaster Strikes and Why, whose premise appears to be that the first task for the unprepared individual when disaster strikes is to freeze, which is a reaction that goes back to our reptilian past. So maybe David Icke's views are not that batty and, when stressed, our reptilian instincts kick in and rule the day.

In a larger sense, this seeming lack of preparation would probably be sorted had the president spent more time in the Senate before seeking higher office.

How to Find Meaning in Your Work

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Dumb Little Man illustrates how to find meaning in your work:

  1. Think about your values. You do have them, no matter how much you hate US Republicans
  2. Look at the end result
  3. Find out who you're helping
  4. Take pride in doing a good job

Iraq is the New Lebanon

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Interesting Cardholder Agreements from FIA

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Someone (probably Kassourri) told me long ago that my insistence on reading license agreements is rather peculiar. Yet, I don't mind being peculiar. It's me, I enjoy making companies squirm once they realise that they need to vet their license agreements, often downloaded and passed on to the printshops.

FIA is just the latest to express a howler. I got my credit card bill, with a $1.31 in something called foreign currency transaction fees, which I'd not noticed before. I called the number at the back of my statement and got the fee reversed. But, I also demanded a copy of the (updated?) card holder agreement (anyone have a link to this agreement?).

Interesting on the copy I have, there is no mention of any foreign currency fee whatever.

Our Poor Mayor

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I added the ability to copy on the server side. To do so, I couldn't use JOptionPane. In lieu of this, you'll notice I've put a JTextField in a JFrame. Also, for headless machines, the server prints out messages on the console.

For the client, I've added a proper GUI for input, that accepts pasted text and what nots. Let me know what you think.

How to Handle Distributed Notifications -- Client/Server

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I have multiple machines, and multiple platforms at home (Mac, WindowsXP, and FreeBSD, and that's just the computers!). I extended the Java Echo this evening for message-passing between the machines. Start the server using java -jar Reminder.jar Reminder.DistributedReminderServer and it will print the port it is bound to, but if you would like to specify a port, you can define the port. The source code is pasted after the flip. Please leave comments as to how you're using the code.

How to Destroy Relationships

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Dumb little man lists six ways to destroy relationships. The list (and some applications from the past few years of my life) are given below:

  1. Attachment
  2. Control - Midori constantly thinking I was cheating on her -- with coworkers, with friends, and even (yes) with guys was a prima facie example of this.
  3. Expectations - In one of our earliest conversations, Vonni said that she wanted to marry me, which set my expectation for us despite all indications to the contrary.
  4. Selfishness - Cathy's continued insistence on keeping her friendship with Dave, even after the aforementioned-gent's threats against me and her refusal to talk to him about how I didn't appreciate them.
  5. Non-growth
  6. Different values - I suppose certain members of my family that I minimise interactions with are an example of how differing values can prevent/destroy a relationship.

If you were named above, do know that it's not slagging you, what happened is as much my fault as it is yours. Our relationships were destroyed, but if you're ready to forgive me, feel free to leave a comment under this entry.

California Limits Wait Times By Law

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I seem to recall some of my mates on the right saying that government run healthcare would lead to dying while waiting for an appointment, like the Brits do. As one of the Brits, who never had private insurance in the United Kingdom growing up, I beg to differ. My entire family wouldn't trade your HMO-based, fucked up, system where people die out of an inability to afford the care they need for the free-at-the-point-of-service, no bureaucracy National Health Service, which, had Margaret Thatcher not cut its funding, would be the best health system in the world.

Enough ranting about healthcare, but just one question for you ignoramuses -- if there is no waiting in your private sector über alles system, why would the 7th largest economy on Earth have to pass laws limiting wait times?

How to Help Me Collect Email Statistics

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If you would recall, I've committed myself to email mining to determine what time is busiest for email. Well, now you can help out! Just download the latest version and its dependencies, (Commons HTTPClient 3.x, javamail, and their assorted dependencies -- yes, I know it's a large number) and run the program as java -cp commons-codec-1.2.jar:commons-logging-1.1.1.jar:mail.jar:commons-httpclient-3.1.jar:. -Dusername=my.username -Dpassword=my.password -Dmail.protocol=imaps -Dmail.host=my.imap.hostname.which.defaults.to.gmail EmailStats. As with the last time, the dependencies are all open source and my source code is pasted after the flip...

How to Improve Your Data Retention Using Web 2.0

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Lifehacker has an entry highlighting improving memory using memorize now. My own best-practise for remembering something is qui scribit, bis legit. In other words, writing things down, or outsourcing your memory.

Could a Tory Win lead to Irish Reunification?

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Socialist Unity shows a profile of the two parties in the Ulster conflict. Some facts: the DUP, disgusting as some of their views are on the Ireland situation, has broadly left-wing views, ditto with Sinn Fein and may not stand for a Tory government. The question still remains, though, whether they would be willing to join their mates in the republic of Ireland under a centre-right (but not as far as a neo-Thatcherite) Fianna Fail government?

Transit that Never Was, Nor Will Ever be

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How to Identify Adverts Dynamically in Television

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I noticed, while watching this weeks 24 episodes, that the volume on the recording seems to be lower than that of the adverts. Volume normalisation seems to be a solved problem. So, why can't my DVR actually, err, you know, skip the commercials?

How Do Blog Metrics

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You may have noticed a new link on the right side of the page labelled How about some analytics? I wrote something to generate the page and have pasted the code after the flip.

Interesting Email Statistics Revised

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I fixed the out of memory errors and embedded the class into javamail. As with last time, the source code for my class is posted after the flip. Javamail is open source. Because it's been bundled together, you can run it using $JAVA_HOME/bin/java -Dusername=username -Dpassword=password -Xmx512m -Xms512m -jar mail.jar, again it does take a long time but it's memory use is considerably lower than the last iteration.


UPDATE

The output on my email address is below. Running it, I uncovered an off-by-one error in the final loop and have corrected it in the source code after the flip. The code on the server will soon be updated:

1       2715 messages.
2       2647 messages.
3       2848 messages.
4       2985 messages.
5       3465 messages.
6       4310 messages.
7       5051 messages.
8       5370 messages.
9       5576 messages.
10      6022 messages.
11      5908 messages.
12      5219 messages.
13      5143 messages.
14      5011 messages.
15      4522 messages.
16      3833 messages.
17      3328 messages.
18      2933 messages.
19      2529 messages.
20      2582 messages.
21      2698 messages.
22      2931 messages.
23      2906 messages.
        90532 messages processed

Runtime: 22630750 miliseconds 

Interesting, most of my email in the past few years has come around 10am Pacific Time (or 1pm Eastern, 6pm GMT, 10am HKST). I'll do further studies on this as time goes on.

How to Acclimate Yourself to New Surroundings

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Lifehacker teaches how to acclimate yourself to new localities with a list of tools. For adjusting socially, I find joining a local Toastmasters chapter and getting involved in local politics has helped me acclimate immensely.

Pajama Media (again)

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Nate Silver says we shouldn't trust the poll from Massachusetts done by Pajamas media. Perhaps some background on the outfit is in order? This is the same outfit that sent Joe the plumber to Israel, from which vantage point he was rubbished by the greatest presenter this side of Beirut, George Galloway. Joe the Plumber also asked a silly question at an Obama event in Ohio and misrepresented his name, his profession and what he does for a living. Then, he became a war correspondent and the outfit that paid him is the same as the one backing this poll. Colour me unphased.

My New Favourite US Politician...

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... is Alan Grayson. Watch the video and try to guess why.

Interesting Email Statistics

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This afternoon, I wrote a program to analyse my email. I was curious as to the hidden patterns in the times I receive email. You'll need javamail and JRE 1.5 to participate in the fun. Do note, it tends to take a while to run, so start it and leave it running till completion. The results are below and the source code is after the flip. Enjoy and do let me know if your results differ:

0       12
1       3
2       2
6       5
7       13
8       22
9       20
10      24
11      26
12      23
13      28
14      18
15      19
16      12
17      18
18      15
19      9
20      8
21      10
22      11
23      18

The column at left is the hour (0-23) and the right is the number of emails. On the larger dataset, the code ran out of heap space, which will be investigated further.

Want to Avoid Earthquakes?

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Walmart to buy Vudu

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I'd never heard of Vudu until I bought the BD-390 and have Netflix. Hacking Netflix claims that Walmart is interested in buying it to compete with Netflix. The only competition Vudu gives Netflix is in the area of instant streaming and this is the latter's weakest area. So, colour me unbuzzed. Examining the stocks, it would seem traders aren't too worried about it either.

How to Disable Keyboard Shortcuts Using Greasemonkey

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Google Reader has this nasty-quirk of using "A" as "Mark all Items Read", which I tend to inadvertantly hit. I'd like to make this a no-op using Greasemonkey. But I have no clue how to do this. Anyone have code samples disabling a keyboard shortcut? If you do, please post them in the comments. Many thanks!

How to Manage Passwords

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We who read Lifehacker know that the best password manager is keepass. If you have more than one device and can install jython, your solution for read-only access to your passwords is to be found here and the source code is below.

Why avoid the "Long Primary"?

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Tom Schaller claims the DNC wants to do away with the so-called long primary by eliminating superdelegates, who he claims, kept Mrs. (now Secretary of State) Clinton in the race and kept Mr. (now President) Obama from declaring an early victory. All the analysis I've heard said that the extended primary helped the Democrats and hurt the Republicans. Then again, most of the committee membership are conservative Democrats, who are akin to the Thatcherite wing of the Labour party at home, so I'd imagine this lot doesn't like Obama very much anyway.

How to implement Facebook Connect on Movable Type

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One of the most popular social networks today is Facebook, which has an authentication service for end-user applications. A certain Jian Shuo Wang says that he removed Facebook connect from his blog, because it added no value (well, not much value for the reader community of this blog), and it make the system too complicated. I don't fear complexity, one bit. I also believe in giving readers a choice. I don't think I have readers using Yahoo Japan, but that is still an authentication choice.

Top 8 Ways to Manage Anger

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Penelope Trunk gives anger management tips today. Perhaps I need them (Midori thinks I do, while acknowledging that she herself needs help in this regard)? Anyway, the tips follow:

  1. Face the problem and make it a priority.
  2. Focus on your trigger points.
  3. Use deep breathing to regulate stress.
  4. Have a regular sleep schedule.
  5. Accept that every day includes unpredictability.
  6. Understand what causes you frustration.
  7. Use (something called) solutions-based language in tense conversations.
  8. Slow down a tough situation, as snap decisions are usually bad ones. This goes back to the type 1 vs. type 2 thinking we covered in MBD.

Top 9 Ways to Persuade and Influence People

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Dumb Little Man, who seems to be anything but dumb, judging by how useful the entries are, has 9 secret ways to persuade people, summarising below:

  1. Framing
  2. Mirroring
  3. Scarcity
  4. Reciprocation
  5. Timing
  6. Congruence

How to Replace Notepad with Notepad++ in Windows XP

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It would appear that Notepad++ won Lifehacker's best text editors. Now that I have Windows XP, between cursing the software and praising the hardware, I'm trying to tweak it as best I can. Including replacing the notepad, whose instructions seem incorrect. Anyone have updated instructions? Many thanks!

Mathematics of War

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How to Title Digital Photographs Automatically

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I title my Zooomr photos after song lyrics (3~4 words/photo title) in my iTunes library. If Zooomr's API included a method to set photo titles, the titling of my photos would be automatable. That would be truly useful.

How a Technology Becomes "Cool"

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Scoble claims that automotive radar is the most important technological innovation, yet isn't too well known and goes on to speculate why we technologists find items like Android or the latest iPod cool. The reason automotive radar is not seen as terribly sexy is that car companies are in the business of selling cars (or loans to buy cars), not automotive radar systems, while Apple is in the business of selling iphones. You see it in their ads. The typical car advert has prices for purchase and lease, yet no mention of the radar system. The Lexus we have in Dubai has a pretty cool rear-view system that goes crazy when you get too close to the car behind you when parking. Yet, you never see Toyota demonstrate this in their adverts. Perhaps, it is precisely because these radars and cameras prove their usefulness in distressful situations. I don't see adverts for cars getting close to accidents from the car companies. I do see them from the insurance companies, who are, similarly, not in the business of selling cool car technology, rather they are in the business of separating my money from my bank account. I am open to hearing how to solve this, though.

The US anti-Muslim?!?

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I just heard on CNN that the al-Qaeda narrative is that the US is anti-Islam and just thought I'd post a response to posit that the United States is not anti-Muslim, rather over the history of the United States, there has always been a minority of some sort that has been discriminated against.

How to use Ribbit Mobile

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I signed up for ribbit on the premise that I wanted to be able to read my voicemail without paying extra to Vonage. Now I can't receive calls on the line as they're automatically forwarded to voice mail in one ring. Grrr... Anyone know how to fix this so that ribbit is triggered after 4 rings on Vonage and my mobile?

Bezos on Kindle

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How to Set the Movable Type Background Colour

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I finally figured out how the background colour is set in Movable Type. In your themes CSS (I'll use my current theme as an example), which would be at $MT_STATIC_PATH/themes/$SELECTED_THEME/screen.css, there is a line looking like " background: #628642 url(body.gif) repeat-y top center;". The emphasized numbers represent the RGB hex code. Just pick the one you want and set it there. There's no rebuild required as you're changing the theme, and not the template itself.

How to Centre Images using CSS

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I just became aware that the HTML CENTER tag is deprecated. However, there is still a need to align non-block elements, specifically, images. The new way of doing so is below:
margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;
Put the line above as the style attribute and you'll achieve the same effect.

Bad Fare Day

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How to Automate Digital Cleanup

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Matt Cutts is doing the digital cleanse, a phrase coined by, and attributed to, John Mayer. I'm going to coin the phrase digital cleanup as in cleaning up the noise in a dataset. Specifically, the market data I'm currently collecting at work. Filtering noise is most efficiently done at the data collection level, since I'm using Yahoo for stock information, which I then collect in a MySQL datastore. For the expected and unexpected market holidays, it's a waste of space to collect redundant, useless data. However, when the stock market is closed, trading volume is 0. Now there are already holidays on Saturday and Sunday. It's the various bank holidays and unexpected holidays that pose a bigger problem. I'm only adding data if the volume is greater than 0. Another assumption that I'm making is that users of the service won't be investing in low-volume stocks. I am leaving myself open for being corrected, though.

New Year's Gift For Steve

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DSC_3648

Miae's Gems

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DSC_3657

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